Author: Pat W

2012 Formula 1 Preview Part 2

The second part of my 2012 F1 season preview is a look at the likely top half of the order. A selection of these thoughts appeared in Sidepodcast’s Season Preview Megamix podcast which you can listen to here.

As always in F1 the teams can be divided into groups. These are broadly: title-contenders, ‘best of the rest’, midfielders, and backmarkers. This post looks at this year’s championship contenders and those I like to call the ‘best of the rest’. Ignoring the PR fluff, I’ll note a realistic objective for each team – if they don’t acheive it they’ll have had a poor season, if they exceed it they’ve had a good one!

This is post 2 of 2: Read about the Backmarkers here.

Frontrunners

Red Bull

Drivers: Sebastian Vettel, Mark Webber;
Engine: Renault;

Undeniable favourites. Their car was so superior over the last two years it is hard to imagine it being different now – but every streak comes to an end, will it be this year? I don’t think they will have quite the advantage they had before, at least not over McLaren – Ferrari and the rest may be another story.

Vettel has to be favourite for the drivers’ title, he’s been driving superbly and will be tough to beat – unless the revisions to the tyres for 2012 upset his rhythym. Webber didn’t put up as much of a fight in 2011 as he did in 2010. Both he and the team need that to change in case McLaren have found something for them.

Objective: Win both championships. I think they’ll ‘only’ win one of the two, McLaren will get the other.

McLaren

Drivers: Jenson Button, Lewis Hamilton;
Engine: Mercedes;

For me McLaren are still the team to take the fight to Red Bull and I think a lot of people will want them to win if only because they don’t have a stupid nose on their car! The only problem I see is the drivers taking points from one another.

Button and Hamilton will surely remain equally matched, depending on how the tyres play out and what changes Pirelli has made this year. Button had the edge last year because Hamilton was getting penalties making mistakes under pressure. If Lewis can step his game back up to where it used to be, lose the errors, this will be a fun inter-team battle to watch – particularly since they seem to get on really well. My prediction is that Button will again edge it, but it’ll be closer than last year.

Objective: Win both championships. As I said above, I think they’ll ‘only’ win one.. but I can’t call which.

Ferrari

Drivers: Fernando Alonso, Felipe Massa;
Engine: Ferrari;

Ferrari don’t like it when they stop winning titles, will they revert to type and start chopping and changing management? Or will Pat Fry joining the team start them in the right direction again? From the mumblings coming 0ut of pre-season testing it sounds like the car isn’t anything to write home about. They key will be how they fix the problem.

Whatever happens I don’t think Alonso will stop trying, whatever speed the car has, he’ll find it. There is also the now annual question: Is this Massa’s last year? He keeps hanging in there doesn’t he. I don’t believe the suggestion that Webber could replace Felipe, but I can easily see Perez slotting in next season.

Objective: They’ll say their aim is the championship (or both). Realistically I think they’ll even struggle for race wins, but their aim should be at least one win if not two or three. If the car is as bad as feared their only objective will be to beat Mercedes, Lotus, etc.

Best of the Rest

Mercedes

Drivers: Michael Schumacher, Nico Rosberg;
Engine: Mercedes;

The same assessment I gave one year ago: this has to be Nico Rosberg’s breakout season. He had a decent season last year, we need to see a bit more though. Part of that relies on the car of course and it didn’t seem as competitive last year. They seem to have kept themselves quiet over the winter so it’s hard to get a read on them. Interesting choice to start testing later than the others, sometimes this strategy works but with so many teams opting for early track time you have to imagine that’s the optimum strategy under this year’s rules. Yet of all the teams in the upper midfield I still think this is the one to take the fight to the guys up front.

I don’t really have anything to say about Schumacher. As long he and Rosberg are fairly evenly matched, as they have been, there’s no real reason for Schumacher to leave other than boredom. MS has improved a lot since his comeback year, he’s not on his old form but he’s good enough.

Objective: They’ve got to go for 4th AND be an annoyance to the top three teams. Score frequent podiums. Stay clear of the main midfield.

Lotus

Drivers: Kimi Räikkönen, Romain Grosjean;
Engine: Renault;

It’s been weird seeing this team fall down the order, at times recently they’ve been much too far back in the pack in races. Regardless of the name above the door you just don’t expect the team at Enstone to be running outside the top ten. I expect that to change this year as they seem to have got themselves into order. If they aren’t back in business, racing Mercedes and worrying the frontrunners, I’ll be very surprised indeed.
Kimi is an interesting hire. When he was announced he was considered past it, and there’s an element which makes me wonder if he’ll have lost his edge. But unlike Schumacher when he returned, Kimi has been actively competing in other categories, indeed the precision of the WRC may even have sharpened his skills. He’ll lack recent race experience but as a champion I expect him to have knocked out the rust even before we reach Melbourne. Do not underestimate Romain Grosjean. He is not the driver who was plunged into the deep end in F1 in 2009, and the team’s changed too. He may not quite match Kimi but I don’t think he’ll be miles behind him. This is a strong line-up. The real questions arise over the car, and the team leadership.

Objective: They say their target is 4th and I think that’s a good target: beat Mercedes and Force India, both of which worried them recently. A realistic objective is 5th in WCC – but they are quite right to aim for 4th.

Force India

Drivers: Paul di Resta, Nico Hülkenberg;
Engine: Mercedes;

This is an exciting year for Force India, I think they have one of the best driver line-ups on the grid. Added to what seems to be an improving technical dept producing better cars and they could really fight Mercedes and Lotus hard this year. The car looks tidy too, it’ll be fast. The question mark here is about Vijay Mallya – if the Kingfisher empire hits the rocks, as it well might, what will become of the team? Surely that’s a distraction.

Di Resta waited far too long to get into F1 and now he’s proving why. To have a rookie season with results like that was just what he needed, though of course with as many DTM races as he had he wasn’t a total rookie (DTM cars almost being singleseaters with bodies). The Hulk really didn’t deserve to sit out for a season after his debut year, I really can’t wait to see what he does this year. This season is almost a head-to-head to see who takes any vacancy which may appear at Mercedes (or even McLaren) for 2013.

Objective: Mix it with Lotus and Mercedes. Score podiums. The drivers are solid, let’s see the team surprise people – they still have some of that old Jordan underdog fighting spirit, let’s see it!

2012 Formula 1 Preview Part 1

The first part of my 2012 F1 season preview is a look at the likely bottom half of the order. A selection of these thoughts appeared in Sidepodcast’s Season Preview Megamix podcast which you can listen to here.

As always in F1 the teams can be divided into groups. These are broadly: title-contenders, ‘best of the rest’, midfielders, and backmarkers. This post looks at this year’s midfielders and backmarkers. Ignoring the PR fluff, I’ll note a realistic objective for each team – if they don’t acheive it they’ll have had a poor season, if they exceed it they’ve had a good one!

This is post 1 of 2: Read about the Frontrunners here.

Midfielders

Sauber

Drivers: Sergio Perez, Kamui Kobayashi;
Engine: Ferrari;

Before BMW showed up, Sauber naturally sat about 6th or 7th in the Constructors Championship every year, they had the potential to move up if they ever got investment but you never got the impression they’d ever sink below it. I get the feeling now the split from BMW has fully taken effect they are back to their old level again. Funny how that happens! Not sure how losing a Tech. Director will affect them, maybe they’ve put in a McLaren-like structure where it doesn’t matter too much.

Perez is a talent and I think he’s going places. Whether it be Ferrari, McLaren, Red Bull.. by 2014-2015 he’ll be at one of them. Kobayashi is in his 3rd year, people will now watch him like a hawk – is he really as good as he promised with his impressive debut? If Kamui regains his rookie season spirit (and Perez maintains his) this team will have two fighters in a car which doesn’t usually eat tyres – a real underdog team.

Objective: Beat Williams, STR, Caterham. Mix it with Mercedes and Force India regularly. 6th or better in WCC.

Toro Rosso

Drivers: Daniel Ricciardo, Jean-Eric Vergne;
Engine: Ferrari;

I expect the car will naturally fall at the approximate Williams/Sauber level again, the question is what two rookies will get out of it with no experienced hand to help them. This is why I think it took so long for Alguersuari and Buemi to bed in, and now STR have done it again. I think both drivers are better than those they replace, but it’ll take a little while to show it because both Jaime and Seb had improved so much over the last couple of years.

Riccardo does have the part-season with HRT last year as experience, and it being a dog of car can only help him when he’s presented with a half decent one here. Vergne is a talent though and I think he’s marginally better. After a few races where Dan will have the edge, this pairing should be very evenly matched.

Objective: Beat the other young drivers at Williams and Sauber. STR isn’t set up to worry about where they finish in the WCC, the aim is for the drivers to prove their worth.

Williams

Drivers: Pastor Maldonado, Bruno Senna;
Engine: Renault;

I’m tired of saying ‘they’ll potentially be much better this year’. I’ve been saying it since at least 2005. Another engine partner, another personnel reshuffle, another driver change. Like the others near the back I give them credit for admitting their failures and trying another solution. The bad thing is yet another ‘building year’ as they restructure. It is time to get out of this rut. I’m very excited for the potential of the Renault engines and I fully expect the team to jump back ahead of Toro Rosso and fend off Caterham. Losing an experienced driver may hurt.

Maldonado needs to keep ironing out the crashes. He’s got talent and is fast on his day, but basically is the new Sato. Senna only has part-seasons with HRT and Renault/Lotus. He’s not Ayrton and never will be, but he’s a solid driver who deserves his place in F1 – this is the ideal chance to prove it. The media will be unbearable at times with the Williams/Senna connections, I just hope he gets the space he needs.

It will be interesting to see if either emerge as natural team leader. I reckon it’ll be Senna.

Objective: Get back into points finishes, finish 8th or better in WCC.

Caterham

Drivers: Heikki Kovalainen, Vitaly Petrov;
Engine: Renault;

This team made impressive gains last year. Make the same jump again this year and you’ll be racing Williams, Toro Rosso and Sauber at every race, with the potential for the odd points score. Indeed I think they’ll do just that.

Kovalainen is on form and is the ideal guy to battle in the field to get a good finish, on the face of it he’s been driving well but his yardstick was a Trulli who may have been in ‘cruise and collect’ mode. Vitaly Petrov isn’t much better than Jarno but he’s more motivated, and has the potential to keep improving.

Objective: A handful of points finishes. Beat one or more of Toro Rosso, Sauber or Williams in the constructors standings.

Backmarkers

HRT F1

Drivers: Pedro de la Rosa, Narain Karthikeyan;
Engine: Cosworth;

A fresh start for HRT after throwing out Colin Kolles and his organisation. They are essentially starting all over as a new team again. New owners, new team personnel, a new operating base, and an apparent veil of secrecy over the whole thing. From the look of it the only thing not new is the car, which looks like the 2011 car modified to fit current rules. I’ll again be amazed if they qualify for every race, which they otherwise ought to have done this year with relative ease. Once again they’ll be battling the 107% rule and hoping stewards keep ignoring it. However, they’ve proven me wrong for two years now and beaten Virgin/Marussia, so best of luck to them!

The driver line-up is unspectacular, but DLR will help sort the car with his McLaren experience even if he isn’t quick. If they’d used an experienced driver earlier they might’ve progressed faster. Expect the 2nd seat to again go to anyone who can temporarily outbid Karthikeyan. Narain’s not great but is better than many think.

Objective: Qualify for all of the races on merit (no exemptions), finish races reliably. Close some of the gap to the main pack. Ultimately start behaving like a professional F1 team.

Marussia

Drivers: Timo Glock, Charles Pic;
Engine: Cosworth;

I have no idea why a driver of the high calibre of Timo Glock is sticking around for a third season with this team. I suspect he joined with the intention of getting the result Heikki Kovalainen has at Caterham – a rejuvinated career with a team improving every year. That hasn’t happened. Marussia made progress with solving their dreadful reliability, but the speed still wasn’t there in 2011. If the team hasn’t improved by midseason I expect Glock to leave by year’s end. Again a lot changing though, including a team relocation, maybe they’ll do better after a restructure. Like HRT they have no real test mileage behind them, just a bit of shakedown work. I like this team’s fresh attitude and I have a lot of respect for John Booth, but they’re really going to have to step it up this year to be taken seriously.

Charles Pic is decent enough and he and d’Ambrosio are probably comparable, Pic may edge it, but why switch to another rookie without giving the first one the chance of a second season? The same happened a year ago to the unfortunate Lucas di Grassi.

Objective: Finish races and beat HRT on pace. Start closing the time gap to the main pack. Stop saying ‘Maroosha’ when it clearly says ‘Ma-Russia’.

Donington Historic – A Future Classic?

Pre-1966 Under 2-Litre Touring Cars

You may remember I attended the Goodwood Revival in September, a truly fantastic event I recommend to you even if you aren’t a fan of historic racing. But we can’t all spend £50 for a single one-day ticket at a racetrack (before travel and other expenses) when you think most UK events cost half that, at most. It just so happens the extras at the Revival justify the cost (the chance to bump into Stirling Moss doesn’t happen at every track these days), but still, the price is the reason I never attended until last year. And of course, not everyone has that weekend free.

What if you want to see a good day of racing – any racing – in a relaxed atmosphere at less than a third of the price? Whether you want to see historics or if you simply want a good day out at a racetrack, you could do worse than go to the Donington Historic in May. I attended the inaugural event last year.

What’s There?

A variety of sportscars, GT and touring cars from the 1950s to the 1970s, Formula 2 cars from the 1970s, Formula Junior, and the main reason I attended this event: Group C sportscars as seen at Le Mans in the 1980s!

I’d been to one historic meeting before this, Castle Combe in 2007 (the thumbnails look far worse than the actual photos), and I thoroughly enjoyed seeing the old touring cars at that meeting. I’d also noticed the atmosphere was very laid back and relaxed, far more so than any other racing I’d ever attended. So I had some idea what to expect at Donington.

I arrived as the Pre-1966 touring car race was running, I was a bit annoyed about that because alongside Group C this was the race I really wanted to see – I’d seen these cars at Combe and they were great fun (I’d later see them again at Goodwood where they were put on the best race of the day). Blame the 3.5 hour journey time. I was glad I didn’t miss it all.

The Pre-1963 GT race sounded great but didn’t provide a lot of actual racing, just the Ferrari 330 GTO lapping everything (mind you it looked amazing and was worth seeing), but otherwise I didn’t see much going on. This could be because of my location on the front straight, I think I needed to be at the Craners or the Old Hairpin.

Old Meets New, er, Less Old on the Formula Junior Grid

Sadly the Formula Junior race was red flagged due to an accident, but I think everyone was okay. Prior to the day these little cars weren’t on my radar at all and I nearly skipped them to walk around the track, but I stayed put for the restart. They actually sounded brilliant and provided some great racing – I’d happily see them race again any day! They spanned a bit of a time period as well, with the later rear-engined cars up front and a few older, slower front-engined cars at the back.

The F2 cars also sounded great and looked the part, and were fast too, at least compared to everything else out there until the Group C’s arrived. I sat myself at the outside of the exit of Redgate and enjoyed them flying past. They made me wonder what a modern F2 would be like – not the current one-make version or GP2, but a real open competition formula for chassis and engines. It would have to be tightly controlled I’m sure. A discussion for another time, perhaps.

Pre-1961 sportscars featured a great race up front between Bobby Verdon-Roe and Richard Attwood in a Ferrari and Aston Martin respectively, until the latter lost a lap for reasons I can’t remember. They swapped positions several times until then and left the rest far behind.

I mustn’t forget the Ford Escort rally cars running on the GP loop, great to see (and hear!). I was almost deafened by the Chevy. This area complete with Tony Mason on commentary. Proper job.

Group C Jaguars

Finally of course, the Group C cars. Jaguars, Nissans, even a silver Sauber-Mercedes. Fantastic. I’ve seen then at the Goodwood Festival of Speed sitting in the paddock and running up the hill at demonstration speed, at long last I get to see them at a track! The one thing missing was a Porsche but I didn’t mind, this was great.

The Circuit & Event

It was great to see Donington Park back at strength again after the F1 debacle of the latter part of the last decade. Okay so the infield was still earthworks and wasn’t pretty, but these guys are doing well with what little resources they were left with. I have to say though, the gravel traps and grass areas were pristine and as good as I have ever seen either at this track or any other in the UK. The racetrack itself looked perfect. The chicane realignment looks good as well, a nice job was done there. The tattier-looking part in the middle and around the Coppice/McLeans area will follow, I don’t doubt it.

I intend to revisit Donington Park this year either for the Historic or for the ELMS, and I’m already looking forward to going back to one of my favourite circuits. If you’ve not been before, know this: if you’re the type of person who can’t stay in one place at a racetrack and likes to watch from different vantage points, you will LOVE Donington. Be in no doubt that it’s reopening is something we shouldn’t take for granted – make a point of going to an event this year.

The Historic didn’t have a huge attendance, it was respectable though. There was a good scattering of people on the main straight and around the first two corners but overall it wasn’t what I’d call busy, but those who were there were knowledgeable. I watched the FJunior race in the grandstand on the front straight near to an American and an Englishman who really knew their stuff about the category, I almost wished the engines would quieten so I could continue to eavesdrop.

If there aren’t more people at the 2012 event I would be very surprised. I think this event is set to become a classic in its own right.

The other thing to mention: the access! You could walk into the paddock and right to the back of the pit garages and nobody asked for ID or a pass. Wonderful stuff.

See my Picasa album for photos from the paddock and all around the track.

You can see more information at the official website.

Other Historic Events

This is by no means the only historic race meeting of the year, there is a burgeoning historics scene in the UK with some high profile events at Silverstone, Brands Hatch and Oulton Park as well as meetings at other venues such as Castle Combe.

At these other events you may not see the 50s and 60s Grand Prix cars as you would at Goodwood, and you might not always get Group C as you would at Donington, however you may get a dose of single seater racing as well as a good helping of GTs and sportscars from all sorts of eras, and my personal favourites, the 60s and 70s touring cars.

If you’re looking for a relaxed day out at a racetrack don’t rule out a day at a historics meeting, without the tensions of a modern event you might even enjoy it more than contemporary racing.

Personally, I’m thinking of attending the Silverstone Classic for the first time, and paying a visit to Donington for the European Le Mans Series. LM prototypes must look sensational on the Craners, and fast! (Even if only LMP2s). But.. that plan could change, I may well return to the Donington Historic.

A Close End to the 2012 Rolex Daytona 24

What a brilliant result at the Rolex 24 at Daytona!

A popular win in Justin Wilson in his first professional race since his injury last season in IndyCar. I don’t follow Grand-Am racing but I heard on the coverage that Michael Shank Racing are popular winners in the paddock. Wilson and his teammates including NASCAR’s AJ Allmendinger and Grand-Am regulars Ozz Negri and John Pew put in solid drives all race long. Flawless.

They weren’t alone, the 2nd-placed car featuring sportscar legends Allan McNish and Lucas Luhr guesting alongside Ryan Dalziel, Alex Popow and Enzo Potolicchio racing for Starworks was equally as solid. It was a credit to everyone that they finished just five seconds behind the winners, a representative margin for such a close battle all race long. These two cars passed and repassed for hours and hours, outracing all of their competition.

The racing between McNish and Allmendinger was fantastic, save for a little bit too much wheel-banging. It was just as fraught as watching Allan vs the Peugeots at Le Mans. You can tell this mattered to him.

The fancied runners at the top Ganassi team fell by the wayside. Partly this was due to being slower on the fast banking, and partly through reliability. It was a real shame when the 01 car had a gearbox problem robbing us of a three-way fight for the lead in the final hour. Despite the problem they still made it home 6th, vital for the championship. You had to feel for the quick SunTrust team retiring after barely an hour. However I didn’t at all mind the favourites dropping back – it allowed the underdogs through!

Whilst I kept an eye on it I didn’t follow GT class as closely as I do at Le Mans or Sebring. It featured a lot of the same drivers and the racing was just as close, yet it didn’t grab me for some reason. I can’t explain why because it should’ve done. Perhaps it was the knowledge the cars were little faster than ALMS GTC or Porsche Supercup which are usually embarrassed by GT2/GTE cars. I was impressed by both Magnus and Brumos teams, especially Magnus because Brumos had led for so many hours. (TRG finished between them but I already knew their class.)

Resurgence

On the whole though I was impressed with the race and the organisation from Grand-Am. It’s a much-criticised series and I think they’ve done a lot to address those criticisms, with better-looking prototype cars and new cars coming into GT (even if the Audis made a complete mess of it).

It was great to see so many drivers and teams guesting in the race who normally race elsewhere. After a while of being demoted almost to national status, the Daytona 24 Hours is certainly regaining its rightful place on the world stage. Just witness the much-improved race coverage both within the US on SPEED and elsewhere from Radio Show Ltd (Radio Le Mans), MotorsTV, Eurosport and others. It was great to have the RLM crew live on site, it made the race so much easier to follow.

Will I follow any more Grand-Am races this season? Probably not, but I’m certainly more open to the idea than I was before so don’t be surprised if I do. It would help if they offered online streaming the way the ALMS does, because although both series have a European TV deal now, I don’t have MotorsTV.

Finally a thanks and a shout to the two places I spent the race aside from Twitter or my bed, and the race wouldn’t be the same without them:
– Sidepodcast for the live commenting;
– Grab Bag Sports for the 4th annual Blogathon & Mario Kart tourney;

Following the hors d’oeuvres of Dakar and Dubai, Daytona is a brilliant way to kick off the major international racing season.

The next live race is a month from now. A month!! That week you’ll have the pick of the Bathurst 12 Hours and the Daytona 500 and all its support races. In the meantime, you can enjoy Rally Sweden.

I’m off to rest my eyes.