2016 Formula 1 Preview – Team By Team

Team By Team

Let’s get straight into it! These are just my general impressions. If you would like a detailed rundown there are plenty of professional journalists offering their own previews!

Mercedes AMG:

My pick for the Constructors’ Championship and again easily so. I’m less sure about the Drivers’ Championship. I will pick Hamilton, though I have a feeling Ferrari might be close enough to challenge that Hamilton and Rosberg will be so busy taking points from one another, Vettel might sneak it. I also wonder if Merc have been complacent – in testing they somewhat arrogantly only really used the Medium tyres. They did though do a LOT of laps, so the car is bulletproof. Ferrari won’t be able to count on silver unreliability.

Scuderia Ferrari:

My hope is they are closer to Mercedes. They seem to be throwing everything at it and I’d like to see a hint of a title challenge. (I’m not as anti-Ferrari as some think, especially since the management of 2000-2004 is gone). Kimi now has a front end he should be able to get on with but Vettel will still outscore him. Seb needs this to prove he can win titles with two teams, Kimi needs to prolong his career. Podiums galore and the odd win through the year.

Williams – Mercedes:

I predict 3rd once again. They will have to be a bit more adventurous. The new car looks exactly like the old one. (As does most of the field!) Over the next few years with Renault restructuring and RBR likely to come forward, Williams are going to have to keep on their toes to stay ahead. I hope in ’16 they show evidence of that else they won’t be 3rd for much longer. Massa and Bottas are solid but not particularly spectacular. Very ‘Williams’, in other words! Hard to see them improving on 3rd, which is less about Williams, because the team is in a no-mans land. As a customer team they’re unlikely to challenge Mercedes and Ferrari, but as the frontline Merc customer team they’re ahead of the lesser-funded Force India and Manor or anyone with a Renault or a Honda. I see many podiums.

Red Bull – TAG Heuer (Renault):

Ought to run like clockwork.. The team reckoned to have the best aerodynamic department in the business (as proven in the V8 era) haven’t lost that touch, but they’re heavily reliant on the fortunes of Renault. Relations with Renault have broken down so much RBR can’t even mention them by name any more! Hence the engine-badging deal. Yet this year with token restrictions lessened, the power units should improve all the time. But Red Bull are no longer the factory Renault team, they are but a customer.. They should still get the top upgrades but will it be enough? At least with Ricciardo and Kvyat, we know the car will be running as fast as it can go. They’ll beat the works Renault team probably quite easily.

Force India – Mercedes:

It’s easy to assume FIF1 were 5th purely down to the Mercedes engine and I don’t argue the efficacy of that engine, but don’t also count out how good the guys at Silverstone are. They do a heck of a lot with (relatively) not very much. There’s a lot of spark and agility in this team, a culture developed way back in the Jordan days I’m heartened to see still exists. My real concern is with the funding and ownership. Sahara is in jail and Mallya has his troubles. I just hope it doesn’t impact the team. If it doesn’t, expect them along with Perez and Hulkenberg to do another excellent job to race against and beat teams with more resources. Their fight will perhaps be against the resurgent McLaren. FIF1 may also be able to score well in the early races to pull a gap over Red Bull, for a while.

McLaren – Honda:

I’m going to put McLaren 6th but really nobody knows where they will be! My guess is once again they’ll start the year slow and work hard to pull themselves up the order as the year goes on. But they won’t start as far back as last year, perhaps they might start in the lower midfield and work their way up. McLaren usually improves through the year, even in their good years. Button and Alonso will no doubt be frustrated, but with LMP1 drives closed off it’s hard to see where else they’d go. Meanwhile, Stoffel Vandoorne waits and Ron’s patience runs ever lower.. As indicated by my positioning I do think they’ll get solidly into he midfield in the points standings.

Renault:

A transitional year for the former Lotus team. Renault bought their team back! It’ll take a while for the organisational changes to shake out, and they had to adapt their car back from Mercedes. Last year’s car was pretty good but the team lacked the money to use it and develop it. Development won’t be a problem this year but with the likelihood of new rules for 2017 it may be better to focus wholesale on next season. Magnussen has a point to prove, to Ron Dennis in particular, while Palmer will want to show he’s there on talent and not just because of his dad. More treading water then, but hopefully we’ll see many points finishes.

Toro Rosso – Ferrari (2015):

The new car looks dynamite, better even than the Red Bull. Unlike the parent team they’ve extracted themselves from Renault but only with year-old Ferraris. This gives them a bit more grunt but no power unit development whatsoever, so I expect them to start strongly and gradually drift backwards through the year as everyone else works on their engines and recovery systems. So their new car had better not break down in the first few races, which represent their best chance to build points while everyone else irons out bugs in their 2016 PUs. Sainz and Verstappen were both mightily impressive last year, expect that to continue and Kvyat to sweat heavily.

Manor – Mercedes:

The installation of Mercs should provide an immediate boost. It all depends on the cars now. Manor should finally be able to race with the established teams on merit, or at least the Saubers and STRs. No more excuses. There’s this inescapable feeling though that the new owner has some other motive, is he looking to sell it for profit? Two rookies is an.. interesting choice and not one I would’ve made. Wehrlein did preseason testing a year ago though and as DTM champion should be a solid hire. Haryanto I know less about, he’s spent 4 years in GP2 and for 3 of them was nowhere. If the drivers and cars are up to it, Manor have the real opportunity to out-score both Sauber and Haas, and to worry the Toro Rossos – maybe even get among Renault and McLaren.

Haas – Ferrari:

The new boys are no fools. They’re a professional outfit in NASCAR and they know how to race. They’re also an engineering-led company, the whole point of the team is to promote their engineering machinery to prospective buyers. They elected to defer their entry by a year to prepare and wow has that paid off, immediately setting representative times in testing. They have had help from Ferrari and Dallara of course, quite a lot of it too. Smart thinking. They will be near the back but they possibly won’t be at the very back all of the time, if they are they won’t be the 3 or 4 seconds behind that were the last new entrants. The bigger time losses will come from operational reasons, look for fluffed pit stops and weird pit stop strategies as the team gets used to the ways of F1. Grosjean and Gutierrez are both good drivers needing to get on with their careers, Romain especially, both with an eye on any potential Ferrari drive that might currently be occupied by a Finn. Will they score in year one? With a bit of help from attrition maybe, otherwise not. But there’s plenty of potential here.

Sauber – Ferrari:

Sadly the Swiss team still seems to have money trouble. A late car and stories of late payments to staff are not good signs at any time let alone when about to embark upon a season. When they revealed their new car for the 2nd test it looked so similar to the ’15 car they tested the week before, I wondered if they’d brought the wrong one. I think it is very likely they’ll be last at several GPs and I have a feeling they’ll be last in the points standings, which would be disastrous for their cash supply. That said, Nasr is a hot talent and Ericsson should bring the car home, but both should be in a better car and I wish Sauber could provide it.

 

2016 Formula 1 Preview

In some ways the 2016 F1 season is for me a sort of season-long referendum. You see, for the last couple of years, I’ve been bored. And I’m not alone.

Engines

Not because of the engines. Hybrids are essential for relevance, for technological development and yes, for PR. If anything the hybrid rules aren’t open enough – despite being more advanced than most championships, F1 is currently 2nd to the WEC on both hybrid technology and raceability.

Drivers

Not because of the drivers. The drivers are as good as any set of drivers in history. Not better, not worse. Would I change some? Yes. But ultimately this isn’t like the days of absolute no-hopers, running massively off the pace and/or crashing all the time. Given the opportunity, these drivers would be just as racy and just as exciting as those in any other era. They don’t have that opportunity and probably won’t this year either. Let’s hope they do in 2017. It would be nice if they could say what they think a bit more, but fans have been asking for that for a long time – and actually in the last few months the likes of Alonso, Button and Vettel have been more outspoken.

Teams

I’m a little bored of the teams but they are only playing to the rules of the game.

I’m not even bored by domination. It happens. And dammit I sat through the Ferrari years 2000-2004 so I’ll bloody well sit through this! What I learned in the Ferrari years was to watch the midfield because the midfield is fascinating. Plus any fan who watches sportscar racing should be adept at watching the entire field, the entire story, not just at who is going to win overall. Mercedes or Red Bull or Ferrari running away with it isn’t fun, we’d all like more competition, but ultimately they’ve done the better job and any frustrations should be directed at the other teams for not being as good.

Tyres

I’ve been bored by the tyres. F1 shouldn’t be about conserving tyres. Even 24-hour endurance racing isn’t about conserving tyres these days, they go hell-for-leather the whole way, so why is F1? It would be okay if they were designed to the limit and the drivers were pushing to the edge. But they aren’t. The current F1 tyres are designed to be artificially bad in the hope of improving ‘The Show’. But it doesn’t work. Teams always push the limit, so instead of burning through the tyres and pitting several times, the drivers now cruise to the next stop, well below their own performance and that of the car, to make the tyres last as long as possible and reduce the number of pit stops – this is faster over a race distance. The Bridgestones and Michelins of 10 years ago would run rings around them.

Leadership

I’ve also been bored by the appalling way F1 is being run. Grands Prix in authoritarian dictatorship states. A fundamental lack of marketing from Bernie & FOM, quite the opposite actually when the promoter actively talks the sport down. A terrible financial model which, despite making tens of millions, leaves some teams struggling and circuits making considerable losses even though they have to charge fans hundreds of pounds, euros or dollars just for basic seats.

Oh and DRS, just.. no.

If this carries on, I don’t know how much longer I can keep watching. It would be a tremendously hard wrench to stop watching entirely, but I’m already at the stage where F1 Grands Prix are no longer ‘must-see TV’. Right now I don’t mind whether I miss a race live and watch it later. There are races on the calendar I don’t care if I miss entirely. I never, ever thought I’d get to that stage, let alone contemplate giving up.

Upsides!

Think positively. What has kept me going has been the pure sport. It is still there, if you dig hard enough. The stories. The improvements team to team. The way drivers tackle the races. The new drivers coming through (and sadly the unfortunate talented drivers getting shafted by teams desperate for cash). The differences between teams and cars even if those are ever-shrinking. Despite all the problems, somewhere underneath it all a version of the sport still exists.

2016 is interesting. There’s the very real possibility Mercedes will be challenged by Ferrari. There’s disruption in the midfield among Red Bull, McLaren, Renault (ex-Lotus) which will really mix things up, if not in 1st and 2nd in the race result then certainly from 3rd to 18th.
There are new tyres rules, complicated ones, which should add a variable without affecting things too greatly.
There’s also this weird new qualifying system, I won’t dwell on it but let’s say firstly I’m not (yet) a fan, on paper not at all, but also let’s say we should see it before judging. I’m keeping an open mind.

There are signs things are changing. The sport is finally listening to the fans – for better or for worse. Changes to the cars are coming in 2017 or 2018, they may not be the right changes, it certainly doesn’t look like it, but we’ll find out in due course. At least by then F1 cars ought to be jaw-dropping fast again!

Even Pirelli seems to be getting the message – make better tyres.

TV Deal

The UK has an exciting new TV deal with Channel 4 taking over. I’ll miss the BBC coverage but most of that team has landed at C4 and the number of hours seems about the same as the recent BBC deal, and I’m used to that now. Let’s face it, even hardcore fans don’t need live coverage of 21 races worth of practice sessions. And the highlights give me a chance to do other things in the day before settling in to watch – just as long as I avoid social media (spoilers!). I’m really intrigued to see what C4 can bring to the experience.

Team By Team

My team-by-team preview follows in the next post.

Conclusion

Whilst I agree with the need to go for the hybrid formula, I think it has been done the wrong way, and with the wrong tyres. But the competitiveness side of things should even itself out if the rules remain fairly stable and others catch up, and I hope that’ll show signs of happening this year.

Will 2016 be ‘The Best Year Ever’? No, of course not. But it could be the best year of the 1.6 litre hybrid era, and that’ll be good enough for me.

Quote of the Day: A Classic Piece of Ronspeak

“You’ll notice that we have optimised the lateral optical interface of this building.”
I turned to McLaren’s then PR lady Ellen Kolby, and asked nervously:
“Er, does that mean it has a lot of windows?”

Alan Henry being given a tour of ‘Paragon’, later to be renamed the McLaren Technology Centre, by Ron Dennis in the later phases of construction.

For the last couple of years the respected and long-standing motor sport journalist Alan Henry has been writing blogs for McLaren and they are well worth going back through and reading.

This quote is from “In search of McLaren’s true roots” from August 2014, which runs through the team’s moves from factory to factory before settling in the MTC. It becomes even more interesting if you open up Google Maps and Streetview!

2016 Motorsport Calendars

2016’s calendars are now available!

Each year I produce motorsport calendars for use within Google Calendar, iCal, Outlook and many other apps.

I have now added as many 2016 motorsport dates as I can find and they are available to use!

Just go to:   www.toomuchracing.com/calendar

There are a few notes on my methodology followed by a table showing each racing series:  F1, MotoGP, IndyCar, WEC, IMSA, NASCAR, WTCC, BTCC, DTM and many more. Just click the links on the right hand side of the table.

There are a couple of options, try each to find the one that works the way you want it.

If you subscribed to these feeds in 2015, or before, and have not removed them, you do not need to add them again. Just scroll forwards and the dates will be there. This obviously doesn’t apply if you took it as a download!

Thanks everybody for your continued support of this project. Do keep pointing out errors and omissions. And share with anybody who may be interested!

This Blog

A quick note on the blog:  I apologise for not posting more frequently. The last couple of years have been quite tiring. I keep meaning to return with lots of small posts and observations rather than the occasional long-read. I do miss the long posts as well.

I’m also considering a Facebook page. On Twitter I share or retweet lots of stories I think are interesting or funny and it might be useful to have a place on FB to do the same. Let me know your thoughts.

For F1’s Sake Podcast

I used to listen to ‘Another F1 Podcast’ until they stopped making them. A podcast of frank opinions from a couple of guys on the state of F1, on teams and on how much of a **** Alonso may or may not be.

Now one of the two has moved on to a new monthly podcast along with two new co-hosts. Loose F1 chat in a ‘mates in the pub’ style. I don’t always agree though I do quite a bit and its all good fun – and nice to hear real opinions rather than a by-the-numbers field rundown or the details of what one of the Toro Rosso guys had for breakfast.

A little bit sweary in places, though not as much as in AF1P, so maybe not for the little ones!

It actually started 3 weeks ago, which I knew but then forgot because I’m stupid and can’t remember things.

For F1’s Sake (Soundcloud)

July’s podcast (36 minutes), recorded after the Hungarian GP:

No behind-the-scenes PR going on here, this is just an old-school ‘I found this and wanted to share it’ post. They haven’t paid me for this. Bastards.

[Edit – Updated links]

2015 Motor Racing Calendars

Since 2011 I’ve produced motor racing calendars in Google Calendar, compatible with iCal and all sorts of other reminder systems. I am pleased to say:

The 2015 calendars are now ready!

Apologies for the delay. I wanted to have the full set released before the 24 Hours of Daytona but time got away from me a little.

Full details of how to get them are on the Calendar subpage of this site along with my methodology: www.toomuchracing.com/calendar/

If I’ve made any errors or failed to spot any changes do please let me know!

June 2015 IWTM Calendar with 21st selected.

June 2015 IWTM Calendar with 14th selected.

Agenda for 21st June 2015

Agenda for 13th June 2015

At the time of writing, the Super Formula and Asian Le Mans Series dates are yet to be released though I expect the latter to come on Thursday when the ACO hold their Le Mans and WEC press conference.

McLaren’s 2015 Line-Up

2015 already promised to be an intriguing Formula 1 season for McLaren and is even more so now they have confirmed their driver line-up.


www.sidepodcast.com

This post is in part a response to Sidepodcast’s recent F1 Debrief podcast on the subject which you can listen to here.
They wanted to hear everyone’s opinions and I thought it would be a good opportunity to use this space here. Let them know your thoughts, too.


Honda Are Back

Until now the return of Honda was clearly the major talking point for the team. Not only are Honda back in F1 but they are exclusively supplying McLaren in a works deal. McLaren are accustomed to being the lead partner with an engine supplier, getting all the good parts first and dictating the direction of development.

The team being knocked down to customer status, funnily enough because Mercedes bought the ex-Honda team, wasn’t a situation that was going to last especially once Ron Dennis got back in control. Now their works status is restored. I’m sure Honda will pick up customer teams later but even if they do their focus will surely be on McLaren.

The lack of other teams is a short-term problem of course. Not only are Honda 12 months behind Mercedes, Renault and Ferrari but with only one team Honda will have fewer cars to test with than their rivals, less mileage in the ‘Winter Grand Prix’ on the Spanish and Bahraini test tracks. The already tough challenge is a lot harder in that situation.

It isn’t a given that Honda will immediately produce a good power unit, remember the troubles in 2007/2008 before they pulled out. Then for 2009 they piled a ton of money and development into the car before pulling out and leaving the great car to BrawnGP to reap the rewards… with the help of a Mercedes engine which was more powerful. Had Honda stayed in 2009 with the same good car but the less good Honda engine would the team have won the title? That is one of the great imponderables of motor racing.

I certainly hope the Honda that turns up this time is the one pushing to win.

Head To Head – The Incumbent

I’m very relieved Jenson Button has another year or two with the team and I hope the time isn’t squandered waiting for Honda and McLaren to gel. Hopefully his time with Honda in the past will help, it surely must?

JB has always had his doubters and in my view has always been underrated. He may not be the ultimate best but he is not far off it. Most agree the fastest in F1 is Lewis Hamilton, across their three years together at McLaren Button outscored him. Now admittedly Hamilton was struggling with his head towards the end of his McLaren stint but it is still an accomplishment.

How will he handle Alonso? I don’t think it’ll be as some are suggesting. I think Alonso will have the edge but I don’t think it will be a walkover by any means.

Mark Hughes of Motor Sport, formerly of Autosport and one of the finest F1 writers, wrote this must-read piece analysing the strengths and weaknesses of Button’s game.

Interestingly, perhaps tellingly, he says Button doesn’t focus on erasing his weaknesses or manhandling a car he doesn’t like, as Alonso might. Instead he develops his strengths so they are even stronger and works with the team to remove weaknesses from the car, rather than himself. When it comes to the car he’s a perfectionist so you can see why McLaren like him!

Anyway it is a brilliant piece of explanation and you should read it.

Head To Head – The Returnee

Fernando Alonso is the best all-round racer in F1. On the track it is as if he has no weaknesses, even on a bad day he is still at his top level and drags the best out of any bad car.

Surely this will be a tougher challenge for Button than even Hamilton, because Alonso isn’t merely fast he’s uncompromising, he never gives up and can drive almost anything. You rarely go head to head with Alonso in the same team and come out on the other side looking good.

He is also decidedly fed up with not winning Championships. An interesting statistic from Mark Hughes, this time in the current edition of Motor Sport magazine, is that had Alonso scored just 8 more points in his career, at the right times, he’d be a 5-time champion not a 2-time one. And he’d be worthy of it. Trouble is… he knows it!

It is slightly different behind the scenes, he does like to get his own way and isn’t the best at pulling a team together. If the car isn’t up to scratch he’ll get frustrated and when he’s frustrated he runs his mouth to the press or to Twitter.

Alonso has seen off Kimi Raikkonen, albeit a Kimi who just can not get on with the cars Ferrari are producing. I have to imagine if the Ferrari wasn’t so recalcitrant, if the traits of it were more to Kimi’s liking, then the fierce battle between the two we were all expecting would’ve materialised. Will the same happen at McLaren?

He gambled on spaces opening up elsewhere but found none, so now he has done the unthinkable and rejoined McLaren of all places! Not only that but a McLaren run by Ron Dennis. You can imagine if Martin Whitmarsh were still there that’s one thing, but Ron? After the failed blackmail attempt, the loss of the Constructors’ points, the $100m fine, the espionage case..? Remarkable.

That’s why I think Fernando 2015 may not be the same as the Fernando throwing his weight around inside the team, demanding his own way. He could be a much more humble, docile creature. For a year, anyway.

My bet? Alonso will find his feet, Button will match or even surpass him. Alonso will ultimately score more points.. but not that many more. Year 2, that might be different.

The Best Drivers In F1?

Equally as fascinating will be the Kimi vs Seb match-up at Ferrari. Kimi has the chance to get his head back in the game after a beating from Alonso. Vettel can say the exact same thing after meeting Ricciardo. Both have a point to prove.

Then of course there’s the bunfight at Mercedes, round two!

The resurgent Williams pair. You don’t take a title run against Hamilton to the final round if are a fool, Massa is no fool he’s underated too. That Bottas had such a year against him was as much a reflection of his talent.

Red Bull have the excellent Ricciardo and the promising Kvyat.. but is it too soon for him?

I think McLaren just about shades it. On the whole, over a season I’d pick a combo of Alonso and Button.

We’re already in for a hell of a year and we aren’t even close to testing starting yet to know who might be quick. Yet you have people saying F1 is boring..!

Links

F1 Debrief / Sidepodcast

Mark Hughes / Motor Sport